The mission of the Pardee Center for International Futures is to explore, understand and shape alternative futures of global change and human development. The main driver of that mission is the International Futures (IFs) model, a sophisticated and comprehensive model of global systems that produces forecasts for 186 countries to the year 2100.
That boils down to a lot of data.
2500 data sets, more or less. And thousands of equations in the model to help shape, validate, and uncover insights about the way the world works that will lead to better decisions and better lives. I worked as a data analyst for the research center for three years, becoming an expert on water and agriculture data that produced by think thanks around the world. It was my job to keep the data updated, clean, and analyze it for numerous publications.
As part of the African Futures Project, an ongoing collaboration between the Pardee Center and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), I co-authored two policy briefs using the IFs model. This involved taking data sets through from collection to analysis, ultimately producing tools for policy makers that would impact the lives of millions of people across Africa.
The International Futures economic forecasting model -- or, IFs.
Taps and Toilets: How Greater Access Can Radically Improve Africa’s Future
The International Futures modeling system is used to explore the impact of sanitation and clean water on development in Africa through improvements in access to them. The paper explores a Base Case and alternate scenarios that reflect, respectively, enhanced rates of access and stagnating rates of access. Impacts on development are measured through infant mortality, communicable diseases, GDP, and state fragility. The analysis includes a preliminary cost-benefit analysis.
Cultivating the Future: Exploring the Potential and Impact of a Green Revolution in Africa
Despite possessing large tracts of rich, uncultivated land, Africa is a net importer of food and suffers from high levels of undernutrition. Many have argued that a "Green Revolution," defined by increasing crop yields and land under cultivation, could bring about a more sustainable future for the continent. In this policy brief we explore not only the scope and impacts of policy choices that would increase yields and land under cultivation in Africa, but also interventions to facilitate the consumption of the increased food supplies by those in need within Africa.